Ukraine: The US Policy Record

Ukrainian Casualties

200,000+

Estimated military casualties as of early 2026. Civilian deaths: 12,000+ confirmed by UN.

Displaced Persons

~10 million

Largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. ~6.5 million refugees abroad.

US Aid (Biden era)

$113B+

Military, economic, and humanitarian aid authorized 2022–2024.

Territory Occupied

~20%

Approximately 20% of Ukraine's territory under Russian occupation as of 2026.

February 24, 2022

Russia Invades Ukraine

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, violating its sovereignty and territorial integrity in breach of the UN Charter, the Budapest Memorandum (under which Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from Russia, the US, and the UK), and multiple bilateral agreements. President Putin described the invasion as a "special military operation" aimed at "denazification." Ukraine's elected government, headed by President Zelensky — who is Jewish — remained in place. The Western alliance responded with sanctions and military aid. The invasion did not proceed as Russia anticipated. The war continues.

2022–2024

Western Alliance Response

The Biden administration coordinated a significant Western response: NATO unity, unprecedented sanctions on Russia, and over $113 billion in US assistance to Ukraine. Sweden and Finland joined NATO — a direct consequence of Russian aggression that dramatically expanded the alliance Putin sought to contain. Russia's military suffered documented catastrophic losses. Ukraine recaptured significant territory in 2022. The war settled into an attritional phase through 2023–2024.

Aid Pause and Policy Review

The Trump administration paused military aid to Ukraine upon taking office, pending a policy review. The pause was announced without prior notice to the Ukrainian government. During the pause, Russia continued offensive operations. The stated rationale was the need to reassess US interests and push for a negotiated settlement. The documented effect was to create uncertainty among Ukraine's other Western supporters and signal a potential shift in American commitment to the alliance.

The Oval Office Meeting

President Zelensky was invited to the White House. The meeting, broadcast live, became a public confrontation in which President Trump and Vice President Vance berated Zelensky for insufficient gratitude for US support and accused him of "gambling with World War III." Zelensky, whose country has been under active invasion for three years, pushed back. He was told he was not in a position to dictate terms. The meeting ended without agreement. European allies were not consulted before the meeting. Their reaction, documented across multiple government statements, ranged from alarm to outrage. Trump's Folly notes that this was the first publicly documented instance of a US president publicly humiliating the leader of a country under active invasion by a nuclear power — in the Oval Office, on camera.

Direct Negotiations with Russia — Without Ukraine

The administration initiated direct negotiations with Russia over a potential peace settlement, without the prior involvement of Ukraine or European allies. The US and Russia held bilateral talks in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine was not present. European NATO members were informed after the fact. The stated rationale was that the US was in a unique position to broker a deal. The documented concern among allies: a settlement negotiated without Ukraine's participation could legitimize Russian territorial gains made through illegal military force — setting a precedent with significant implications for the post-WWII international order.

Rhetoric Toward Russia vs. Ukraine

During his first weeks in office, President Trump called President Zelensky "a dictator without elections" — Ukraine's elections have been suspended under martial law, as permitted under Ukrainian and international law during active armed conflict. In the same period, Trump referred to Putin as "smart" and expressed sympathy for Russian strategic concerns. The asymmetry of this framing — applying democratic criticism to the invaded country while expressing admiration for the invader — was documented extensively by foreign policy analysts and allied governments. Trump's Folly records it without characterization. Readers may characterize it themselves.

Vance Calls Ending Ukraine Aid "One of Trump's Proudest Achievements"

Vice President JD Vance publicly characterized the administration's decision to cut off US military support to Ukraine as one of the Trump administration's most significant accomplishments. In remarks reported by The Independent and other outlets on April 15, Vance said: "It's one of the things I'm proudest that we've done in this administration — we've told Europe that if you want to buy weapons, you can, but the United States is not buying weapons and sending them to Ukraine anymore." Vance made the statement while recounting a past argument he had with an unnamed person who challenged his position on Ukraine funding, saying: "This person got really agitated at me because I was saying we should stop funding the Ukraine war. And I still believe that, obviously." The statement is the clearest and most explicit declaration by a senior administration official that terminating Ukraine support is not merely a policy decision but a source of institutional pride. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now in its fifth year, continues. The conflict has killed an estimated 200,000+ Ukrainian military personnel, displaced approximately 10 million people, and represents the largest land war in Europe since 1945. The administration has not publicly addressed the impact of the aid cutoff on the conflict's trajectory. (Sources: The Independent, Daily Star)

Trump Says Iran and Ukraine Wars Could End on “Similar Timetable” After Putin Call; Putin Proposes Temporary Ceasefire for WWII Anniversary

President Trump told reporters on April 29 that the wars in Iran and Ukraine could potentially end “on a similar timetable,” following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to a Kremlin aide, Putin put forward ideas during the call for resolving Iran’s nuclear program and separately proposed a temporary Ukraine ceasefire to mark the anniversary of the end of World War Two in early May. Trump’s comments, made in the context of the House Armed Services Committee hearing on the Iran war, were the most explicit public linkage by the administration between the two conflicts. Ukraine was not party to the Trump-Putin call. No Ukrainian officials confirmed any ceasefire proposal had been discussed with them. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues. US military assistance to Ukraine has been terminated. No framework peace agreement has been reached. The temporary ceasefire proposal — if extended by Russia — would be a diplomatic gesture, not a resolution. Ukrainian President Zelensky has consistently stated that temporary ceasefires benefit Russia by allowing it to regroup and resupply. (Sources: CNN, Times of Israel, Kremlin readout)

Trump Announces Three-Day Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire (May 9–11) with 1,000-for-1,000 Prisoner Swap; Russia and Ukraine Both Confirm

President Trump announced via social media on May 8 that the United States had brokered a three-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, to run from May 9 to May 11, including a suspension of all “kinetic activity” and a swap of 1,000 prisoners from each country. “Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War,” Trump posted, adding that there was “constant progress” in talks to end the conflict. Both Russia and Ukraine confirmed the ceasefire and the POW exchange. Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed “the acceptability for the Russian side of the initiative just proposed by US president Donald Trump.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the agreement on Telegram, writing: “We received Russia’s agreement to conduct a prisoner exchange in the format of 1,000 for 1,000. A ceasefire regime must also be established on May 9, 10, and 11.” Zelenskyy thanked Trump: “I thank the president of the United States and his team for their productive diplomatic involvement. We expect the United States to ensure that the Russian side fulfills these agreements.” The three-day ceasefire came after a period of overlapping and competing announcements: Russia had previously declared a unilateral two-day ceasefire for Victory Day (May 8-9); Ukraine had separately proposed its own short-term ceasefire that Russia ignored; Russia had threatened a “massive missile strike” on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted Moscow’s Victory Day parade on May 9. The Trump-brokered three-day truce represents the first ceasefire agreed to by both parties since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. It does not constitute a peace agreement or framework for a lasting settlement. US military assistance to Ukraine has been terminated. No formal peace framework has been agreed upon. Russia and Ukraine have both accused each other of violating previous ceasefires each has separately declared. (Sources: The Guardian, Reuters, CBS News, Euronews, BBC, AP News)

Three-Day Ceasefire Enters Day One — Hostilities Halted; Putin Says War “Coming to an End”; Prisoner Exchange Underway

The three-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire brokered by President Trump took effect on May 9, 2026 — Russia’s Victory Day holiday — with both sides reporting a halt to kinetic military activity. Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the Kremlin on May 9, said the Ukraine war was “coming to an end,” in comments reported by multiple wire services. The 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange agreed as part of the ceasefire was reported as underway on May 9. Trump expressed hope the ceasefire could be extended beyond May 11. The three-day truce is the first agreed-upon pause in hostilities by both parties since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. It does not constitute a peace agreement, a territorial settlement, or a framework for ending the war. Russian forces remain in occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. US military assistance to Ukraine has been terminated. Ukrainian President Zelensky, who confirmed the agreement on Telegram, thanked Trump and requested that the US ensure Russia fulfills its commitments — consistent with his longstanding position that any ceasefire must be backed by external guarantees, as Russia has repeatedly violated previous ceasefires it itself declared. (Sources: Fox News, Reuters, The Guardian, CBS News, BBC, AP News)

Three-Day Ceasefire Expires Amid Mutual Violations; Ukraine Proposes Extension; Russia Responds with 200+ Drones; Zelenskyy: “Russia Has No Intention of Ending This War”; European Ministers Reject Putin’s “War Is Ending” Claim

The three-day US-brokered ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine expired on May 11 with both sides accusing the other of violating it throughout the 72-hour period. Despite a nominal halt in large-scale airstrikes, combat actions continued along the front line, with each side reporting drone and artillery attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in his nightly address on May 11, was direct: “Today there was no silence on the front line. Combat actions have continued. Russia has no intention of ending this war. And we are, unfortunately, preparing for new attacks. But peace must come. That is exactly what we are working for.” Zelenskyy’s statement came two days after Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the Kremlin on Victory Day, had said the war was “coming to an end” — a framing European leaders rejected. European foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels on May 11, rejected Putin’s suggestion that the conflict was near resolution. Ukraine proposed extending the ceasefire beyond May 11; Russia declined. In the early hours of May 12, Russia launched more than 200 drones against Ukraine overnight — the largest drone assault since the ceasefire began. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha confirmed the attack on X: “We proposed Moscow to extend the partial ceasefire beyond May 11. Instead, this night Russia launched over 200 drones against Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure, including a kindergarten, injuring at least six and killing at least one person.” Ukraine’s air force reported that 192 of the 216 drones launched were downed or neutralized. Damage was reported across multiple regions: in Kyiv, debris from a downed drone struck a 16-storey residential building in the Obolon district; in the Kyiv region, a drone strike set the roof of a kindergarten ablaze; energy infrastructure was hit in Mykolaiv region, causing blackouts; residential buildings and cars were damaged in Zhytomyr region; one person was injured in Dnipro; one woman was wounded in shelling in Kherson. Zelenskyy said on X: “Russia itself chose to end the partial silence that had lasted for several days.” The prisoner exchange of 1,000 for 1,000, agreed as part of the ceasefire, was reported as completed. President Trump had expressed hope the ceasefire would be extended; as of the morning of May 12, no extension was in force. The three-day ceasefire, while the first agreed-upon pause since 2022, did not halt front-line fighting, was not extended by mutual agreement, and was followed immediately by one of the largest Russian drone barrages of the conflict. US military assistance to Ukraine remains terminated. No framework peace agreement has been reached. Russian forces remain in occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. (Sources: Reuters, India Today, CBC, Military Times, The Guardian, AP News)

Russia Says It Will Implement Victory Day Ceasefire “Regardless” of Ukraine’s Response; Zelenskyy Seeks Details; Kremlin Says No Response Required

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on May 2 that Russia would implement a temporary ceasefire around Victory Day — May 9, the Russian national holiday marking the Soviet Union’s World War II victory — regardless of whether Ukraine agreed. “A response is not, in fact, required,” Peskov said. The ceasefire proposal had been put forward by Russian President Vladimir Putin in a 90-minute phone call with President Trump on April 29; Trump said the wars in Iran and Ukraine could end on “a similar timetable” following the call. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on Telegram on May 1 that he was seeking details of the proposal, noting Ukraine had not been directly briefed on what Putin had proposed to Trump. NPR and multiple wire services confirmed Zelenskyy’s statement. Ukraine’s position on temporary ceasefires has been consistent: Zelenskyy has repeatedly warned that brief pauses benefit Russia by allowing it to regroup and resupply. Russia simultaneously launched a daytime drone assault on Ukrainian cities on May 2. The proposed Victory Day ceasefire, if implemented unilaterally by Russia, would be a diplomatic gesture timed to the WWII anniversary and would not constitute a peace agreement or framework for a lasting settlement. US military assistance to Ukraine has been terminated. No framework peace agreement has been reached. (Sources: The Independent, NPR, BBC, AP News)

Acting US Ambassador to Ukraine Julie Davis Steps Down Amid Stalled Peace Talks and Reported Policy Disagreements

Julie Davis, the acting US ambassador to Ukraine and Chargé d’Affaires, announced she would step down from her post in Kyiv and retire from the State Department. The State Department confirmed the departure on April 28. Davis had been appointed by the Trump administration in May 2025, following the departure of her predecessor Bridget Brink — who also stepped down under Trump’s second term. The Financial Times reported Davis’s departure was driven by frustration with the administration’s Ukraine policy, including dwindling US aid to Kyiv. Politico confirmed she was leaving as US-Russia peace talks remained stalled and the relationship between Trump and President Zelensky remained “frosty.” Davis served less than a year as the senior US diplomatic representative in Ukraine. Her departure marks the second consecutive US ambassador to Ukraine to leave during Trump’s second term. The United States has not nominated a permanent Senate-confirmed ambassador to Ukraine since Trump returned to office. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues. No framework peace agreement has been reached. US military assistance to Ukraine has been terminated. (Sources: The Guardian, Politico, Financial Times, Indian Express)

Russia Fires 800+ Drones at Ukraine on May 13 — One of the Largest Attacks of the War — Discharge Petition Forces House Floor Vote on Ukraine Support Act — Trump Says Peace “Getting Very Close”

Russia launched a massive drone barrage against Ukraine on May 13, 2026, firing at least 800 drones across approximately 20 regions — what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as “one of the longest, massive Russian attacks against Ukraine.” The sustained assault began in the mid-morning and lasted for hours, striking the capital Kyiv, the western city of Lviv near the Polish border, the Black Sea port of Odesa, and other population centers. Zelenskyy confirmed at least six people killed and dozens wounded, including children. He warned that Russia’s “obvious goal is to overload air defenses” and that a follow-on cruise and ballistic missile strike was possible. The attack came the day after 14 Ukrainian regions came under assault on May 12. On May 14, Russia launched another drone swarm against Ukraine, with air raid alerts ringing across the country as drones crossed the Russian border shortly after 11 a.m. local time; rescue workers were continuing operations in a residential area where at least 11 people had been pulled from rubble overnight. Ukraine confirmed 1,060 Russian military casualties in the 24-hour period ending May 14. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz described Russia’s aggressive drone operations as intended to test Poland’s air defenses, highlighting the regional spillover risk. On the political front, a bipartisan discharge petition to force a House floor vote on the Ukraine Support Act reached the required 218 signatures on May 13. Independent Rep. Kevin Kiley (I-CA) became the 218th signer; the bill itself is sponsored by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY). The Ukraine Support Act affirms US support for Ukraine and NATO, imposes additional economic sanctions on Russia, and would provide Ukraine with approximately $1.3 billion in new military aid and loans — bypassing Republican House leadership’s block on Ukraine assistance. Kiley said in a statement: “Recent Ukrainian gains have created an opportunity for peace, but the collapse of the recent ceasefire shows that leverage is needed for diplomacy to succeed.” A floor vote is expected as soon as the end of May. Separately, President Trump told reporters as he departed the White House for Beijing on May 13: “The end of the war in Ukraine I really think is getting very close. Believe it or not, it’s getting closer.” At the Beijing summit on May 14, Trump and Xi discussed the “Ukraine crisis” according to both the White House and Chinese government readouts; neither readout disclosed specific agreements on Ukraine. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues in its fifth year. US military assistance to Ukraine has been terminated by executive action. The Ukraine Support Act, if passed and signed, would resume some aid — though the White House has not indicated Trump would sign it. Russian forces remain in occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. No framework peace agreement has been reached. (Sources: Los Angeles Times, Kyiv Independent, Kyiv Post, New York Times, The Hill, The Columbian/AP, RFE/RL)

EU Weighing Draghi or Merkel as Negotiator with Putin — Trump Admin Not Opposed to Parallel EU Talks — Reuters: China Secretly Trained 200 Russian Troops in Late 2025, Some Now Fighting in Ukraine

EU foreign ministers were set to discuss in the coming week whether European Central Bank President Mario Draghi or former German Chancellor Angela Merkel could represent the bloc in potential negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to three EU sources cited by the Financial Times. Three sources added that the Trump administration had recently informed EU counterparts that it is not opposed to Europe conducting talks with Putin in parallel to ongoing US-led peace efforts — a notable shift that would allow Europe to take a more direct diplomatic role in the conflict. No formal decisions on a European negotiator had been made as of May 20. Separately, Reuters reported on May 19 — citing three European intelligence agencies and documents they reviewed — that China’s armed forces secretly trained approximately 200 Russian military personnel in China in late 2025, and that some of those troops had since returned to fight in Ukraine. The training sessions focused largely on the use of drones. Reuters reported the sessions were outlined in an agreement signed by Russian and Chinese officers in Beijing on July 2, 2025. The revelation, if confirmed, would represent a more direct Chinese contribution to Russia’s war effort than Beijing has publicly acknowledged; Chinese officials have publicly called for a ceasefire while denying military support to Russia. The Trump administration had not publicly commented on the Reuters reporting as of May 20. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues in its fifth year. US military assistance to Ukraine remains terminated. Russian forces remain in occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. No framework peace agreement has been reached. (Sources: Financial Times, Reuters)