Economic Policy · Ongoing Documentation
The Tariff Index
This index documents tariff announcements made by the current administration, the stated rationale at the time of announcement, trading partner responses, and known market and economic impacts. It is updated as events warrant.
Events have been warranting frequently.
Trump's Folly does not evaluate whether these tariffs are correct policy. Trump's Folly documents what the tariffs are, what was said about them, and what happened as a result.
| Date | Target | Rate | Stated Rationale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | Canada, Mexico | 25% | Border security; fentanyl trafficking | ● Ongoing |
| Feb 1, 2025 | China | 10% additional | Fentanyl precursor chemicals | ● Ongoing |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Canada, Mexico | 25% (enacted) | Trade deficit, border security | ● Ongoing |
| Mar 4, 2025 | China (cumulative) | 20% | Trade imbalance, fentanyl | ● Ongoing |
| Mar 12, 2025 | All countries (steel/aluminum) | 25% | National security; domestic industry protection | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | All countries (baseline) | 10% | "Liberation Day" — reciprocal trade correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | China (total) | 54% | Reciprocal; trade imbalance correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | European Union | 20% | Reciprocal; trade deficit correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Vietnam | 46% | Reciprocal; trade deficit correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Pharmaceuticals (name-brand / patented) | Up to 100% | Drug pricing leverage; force domestic manufacturing deals | ● Enacted |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Steel & aluminum (adjustments) | Adjusted | National security; domestic metals industry | ● Enacted |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Countries supplying weapons to Iran | 50% | Any country supplying Iran with military weapons; "no exclusions or exemptions"; announced via Truth Social one day after the US-Iran ceasefire | ● Announced |
| Apr 9, 2026 | China (cumulative baseline) | 104% | Additional 50% escalation in response to China's retaliatory tariffs; China responded by raising its baseline on US goods to 84%; further escalation reported | ● Enacted |
| Apr 13, 2026 | China (explicit weapons-to-Iran warning) | +50% threatened | Trump explicitly named China: if caught supplying weapons to Iran, China would face an additional 50% tariff; "a staggering amount" per Trump on Fox News | ● Threatened |
| May 1, 2026 | European Union — Cars & Trucks | 25% (raised from 15%) | Trump accused EU of failing to comply with the July 2025 US-EU trade deal; announced via Truth Social; effective the following week | ● Announced |
Market Response
The following market impacts have been documented in connection with the tariff announcements above. Trump's Folly records them as factual data points. Trump's Folly does not attribute causation beyond what is documentable.
S&P 500 · Apr 3–4, 2025
−10.5%
Two-day decline following Liberation Day announcement. Largest two-day drop since March 2020.
Dow Jones · Apr 3–4, 2025
−3,500 pts
Approximate point decline over the two trading days following the announcement.
Retaliatory Tariffs Announced
4+
Trading partners announcing retaliatory measures: China (34%), EU, Canada, others.
Full Economic Impact
TBD
Long-term GDP, inflation, and employment impact not yet determinable. Being documented.
Retaliatory Measures
34% retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Restrictions on rare earth exports under review.
Countermeasures on US goods announced. Specific rates being determined.
25% tariffs on selected US goods in response to steel and aluminum tariffs.
April 2026 — Pharmaceutical Tariffs
April 2, 2026
100% Tariff on Patented Pharmaceuticals; Steel & Aluminum Adjustments
On April 2, 2026 — the one-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" — President Trump signed two new tariff actions. The first imposed tariffs of up to 100% on name-brand patented pharmaceuticals and their active ingredients imported into the United States. Generic drugs face a lower 20% rate, escalating to 100% by April 2030. The administration framed the tariffs as leverage to force pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices in the US market and relocate manufacturing domestically; companies that struck deals with the administration would receive reduced rates. The second action adjusted existing steel and aluminum tariff rates. Pharmaceutical stocks fell following the announcement. The UK, under a separately negotiated agreement, secured an exemption for UK-origin pharmaceuticals from future section 232 tariffs. (Sources: Washington Post, CNBC, Al Jazeera, White House)
February 2026 — Supreme Court Invalidates IEEPA Tariffs
February 20, 2026
Supreme Court Rules 6–3: IEEPA Does Not Authorize Tariffs; Administration Issues Replacement Tariffs Under Section 122
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. The ruling invalidated a broad swath of tariffs the Trump administration had imposed using IEEPA authority, including many of the "Liberation Day" tariffs announced in April 2025. In response, the administration announced a universal 10% tariff to remain in effect for 150 days (through July 24, 2026) under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which explicitly allows the president to impose a temporary import surcharge to address balance-of-payments emergencies. On March 4, 2026, the Court of International Trade extended the benefit of the ruling to all importers of record whose entries were subject to IEEPA tariffs, ordering US Customs to process refunds. The administration challenged aspects of the implementation. As of April 2026, the overall average effective US tariff rate stood at approximately 13.7%. (Sources: Tax Foundation, Wikipedia tariffs timeline, Court of International Trade, USTR)
April 2026 — China Tariff Escalation
April 9, 2026
US–China Tariff Spiral: Baseline Reaches 104%; China Retaliates at 84%
Effective April 9, the Trump administration imposed an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, bringing the cumulative baseline tariff on Chinese goods to 104%. China responded by raising its baseline tariff on American goods to 84%. According to Wikipedia's documented timeline, the escalation continued further, with the US ultimately raising tariffs to 145% and China responding in kind. The trade war escalation occurred in parallel with the US–Iran ceasefire agreement and tariff threats against countries supplying weapons to Iran, making April 2026 the most intensive period of tariff activity since Liberation Day a year earlier. Reuters data documented that manufacturing jobs in the US fell by 71,000 between April 2025 and March 2026, and manufacturing economic activity contracted for eight consecutive months before partially reviving in January 2026. (Sources: Wikipedia China–US trade war timeline, Reuters, Tax Foundation)
April 2026 — Replacement Tariffs Under Legal Challenge
April 10, 2026
Court of International Trade Hears Challenge to 10% Global Tariff; Judges Question Legal Basis
A three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade heard oral arguments on April 10 in a challenge to the 10% universal import tariff Trump imposed after the Supreme Court's February ruling struck down his preferred IEEPA-based tariffs. The panel, which included judges appointed by presidents of both parties, expressed open skepticism about whether Trump had properly invoked the Trade Act of 1974's Section 122 — the Nixon-era statute used as the replacement authority. Section 122 allows the president to impose a temporary import surcharge of up to 15% for 150 days to address a "large and serious" balance-of-payments deficit, but judges questioned whether Congress intended it to cover trade deficits with foreign nations broadly, as the administration argued, or whether it was intended more narrowly to address currency-exchange and dollar-strength concerns. Attorneys representing small businesses and Democratic-led states argued the statute was designed for narrower monetary emergencies. A ruling has not yet been issued. If the court strikes the Section 122 tariffs as it did the IEEPA tariffs, the administration would lose its primary remaining legal authority for broad import duties. (Sources: Reuters, Al Jazeera, Politico, New York Times)
April 2026 — Iran-Related Tariff Threat
April 8, 2026
50% Tariff Threat on Countries Supplying Iran with Military Weapons
One day after brokering a two-week ceasefire with Iran, President Trump announced via Truth Social that any country supplying Iran with military weapons would be immediately subject to 50% tariffs on all goods sold to the United States, with "no exclusions or exemptions." The announcement represented the use of trade policy as a direct instrument of the Iran war — specifically aimed at Iran's weapons supply chain from third-party nations. Trump did not name specific countries, but the announcement appeared directed at China and Russia, Iran's primary military suppliers. The ceasefire was already in a disputed state on the same day the tariff threat was issued. (Sources: CNBC, Reuters, The Hill)
April 13, 2026
Trump Explicitly Names China: 50% Tariffs If Beijing Supplies Weapons to Iran
Following reports that China was preparing a weapons shipment to Iran, President Trump explicitly named China in remarks on Fox News and in public statements, threatening an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports if Beijing was caught supplying military weapons to Iran. "I doubt they would do that... but if we catch them doing that, they get a 50% tariff, which is a staggering — that's a staggering amount," Trump said. Newsweek reported that by explicitly naming China, Trump raised the economic stakes of the Iran conflict, tying arms transfers directly to sweeping trade penalties. The threat came as the Islamabad peace talks had collapsed without a deal and Trump had announced a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. China has been one of Iran's primary weapons suppliers. The threat positions tariffs as a deterrent with potentially significant consequences for US-China relations, global supply chains, and efforts to prevent the war from widening. Trump separately offered China access to cheaper oil as a potential incentive to stay out of the conflict. (Sources: CNBC, Newsweek, Hindustan Times, India Today)
April 2026 — Russia Oil Sanctions Exemption Expires
April 11–13, 2026
OFAC Sanctions Waiver on Russian Oil Expires; Administration Does Not Extend
A one-month sanctions exemption issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) that had allowed the sale and delivery of Russian oil expired on April 11, 2026. The Trump administration did not extend the waiver. The one-month reprieve had been issued approximately in mid-March as an attempt to contain rising global oil prices during the Iran war — allowing some Russian crude to flow to markets to compensate for supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz closure. With the waiver lapsed and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports commencing on April 13, oil prices resumed their upward movement. The Moscow Times, Politico, and the New York Times all reported that governments and oil markets were in a state of uncertainty as the administration weighed whether to offer a further extension. No extension was announced as of April 13. The decision not to extend tightens global oil supply simultaneously with the Iran blockade — a combination that analysts noted could push prices significantly higher. (Sources: Moscow Times, New York Times, Politico, ABA Banking Journal)
April 2026 — UK Trade Deal Threatened Over Iran War
April 15, 2026
Trump Threatens to Renegotiate US-UK Trade Deal Over UK's Refusal to Back Iran War
President Trump told Sky News on April 15 that the US-UK trade deal signed in May 2025 — which reduced tariffs on British cars, aluminum, and steel — "can always be changed," characterizing the deal as more favorable to the UK than he had been required to offer. Trump said the relationship was in a "sad state" and accused Britain of being "not there when we needed them" over the Iran conflict. Politico Europe reported Trump threatened to "unpick" the trade deal over UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's opposition to the Iran war. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves had publicly described the Iran war as causing global economic damage and said she was "frustrated and angry" that the US had launched military strikes without a clear exit plan; Starmer had also said he was "fed up" with energy bills rising as a result of Trump's actions. UK Prime Minister Starmer responded that he would not yield to Trump's threats. Britain had been among the NATO allies that declined to support or participate in the Iran military campaign — a position Trump had cited repeatedly as a grievance. The threat tied arms and military alliance decisions directly to trade preferences, using bilateral trade access as economic leverage against an ally's foreign policy posture. (Sources: The Guardian, Politico Europe, Financial Times, Sky News)
April 2026 — Tariff Refunds Begin
April 20, 2026
Administration Launches CAPE Portal to Refund $166 Billion in Struck-Down Tariffs — Refunds Go to Importers, Not Consumers
Two months after the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump struck down the administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs, the Trump administration on April 20 launched a new US Customs and Border Protection refund portal — the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) system — allowing importers to begin applying for reimbursement of more than $166 billion in tariffs collected under the invalidated authority. The New York Times, The Guardian, and CNN all reported the portal opening. Importers who directly paid duties on affected entries may submit documentation through the CAPE portal to request reimbursement plus interest. Critics noted the refunds flow to importers — businesses that paid tariffs at the border — not to American consumers who bore the cost of elevated prices on imported goods during the period the tariffs were in effect. The administration had publicly argued the tariffs would be paid by foreign exporters; economists and the Federal Reserve had documented that the costs were largely passed through to US consumers and businesses. The CAPE portal launch represents the administration’s compliance with the Court of International Trade’s March 4 order extending the Supreme Court ruling’s benefit to all affected importers. (Sources: New York Times, The Guardian, CNN)
April 2026 — Trump Pressures Companies Not to Claim Court-Ordered Refunds
April 21, 2026
Trump Says He Will “Remember” Companies That Claim Their Court-Ordered Tariff Refunds
One day after the administration launched the CAPE portal for tariff refunds, President Trump told CNBC on April 21 that he would “remember” companies that do not seek refunds for tariffs that the Supreme Court ruled illegal — implying companies would benefit by abstaining from claiming money the court ordered returned to them. Trump said he was “not happy with the Supreme Court” for ruling the IEEPA tariffs illegal and for not allowing the government to keep tariffs already collected. He noted he was pleased that Apple, Amazon, Target, Walmart, and some other major companies had not yet filed for refunds through the CAPE portal. Trump did not specify how companies would benefit from not claiming the refunds, but the implication was that the administration would look favorably on companies that voluntarily declined to exercise their court-ordered rights. Legal experts noted the statement placed executive pressure on private companies to forgo money owed to them by court order. The government's legal authority to retain the $166 billion in struck-down tariffs was extinguished by the Supreme Court ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. (Sources: Reuters, CNBC)
April 21, 2026
USTR Tells Mexican Auto and Steel Industries: Trump Tariffs Are Here to Stay Through USMCA Renegotiation
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer privately told Mexico's auto and steel industries that they should not expect the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to result in the removal of Trump's tariffs on their sectors, according to four industry sources familiar with the discussions, reported by Reuters. The message directly contradicts earlier industry assumptions that USMCA renegotiation — scheduled for 2026 — would provide a pathway to tariff relief. The administration's position, as conveyed by Greer, is that tariffs on auto and steel imports from Mexico represent a separate policy track from the broader USMCA framework, and would not be negotiated away as part of the agreement's renewal. Mexico's auto sector accounts for a significant share of US vehicle supply chains. Tariffs on Mexican auto imports have disrupted cross-border manufacturing since they were imposed in early 2025. (Source: Reuters)
April 2026 — Court-Ordered Refunds: First Payments Expected May 11
April 29, 2026
First Tariff Refunds Expected Around May 11; ~$166 Billion Subject to Reimbursement — Importers to Receive, Not Consumers
The Trump administration is expected to issue the first refunds on court-ordered tariff reimbursements by approximately May 11, 2026, according to a court order filed April 29 in the US Court of International Trade. Reuters reported the expected timeline. Approximately $166 billion in tariff collections are subject to potential refunds following the Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs as unconstitutional. The CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) portal, launched April 20, allows importers to apply for reimbursement plus interest. FedEx and UPS both announced they would pass any refunds through to their customers. As previously documented, critics have noted that the refunds flow to importers — the businesses that paid duties at the border — not to American consumers who bore the cost of higher prices during the period the tariffs were in effect. President Trump separately stated he would “remember” companies that chose to claim the court-ordered refunds. (Sources: Reuters, Boing Boing/FedEx-UPS announcement)
April 2026 — Section 122 Tariffs Nearing Expiration; Administration Pursues Replacement Authority
April 27–28, 2026
10% Global Tariff Expires July 24; Administration Exploring Congressional and Section 232 Replacements
The 10% global tariff the Trump administration imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 — its emergency replacement after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026 — is set to expire on July 24, 2026, leaving the administration with fewer than three months to secure new legal authority before its primary remaining broad tariff tool lapses. AP News reported on April 28 that the administration had not raised the rate to the statutory maximum of 15% as Trump had previously threatened, and was now pursuing multiple avenues to establish more durable tariff authority. The Lawfare Media analysis published April 27 noted that recent changes to metals tariffs and new pharmaceutical tariffs imposed under Section 232 — a national security authority — were “pushing the legal limits” of that statute. Section 232, which was originally used for steel and aluminum, has never been applied to pharmaceuticals before; legal scholars identified potential vulnerabilities if challenged in court. Separately, Trump told reporters on April 23 that he was considering imposing new tariffs on the UK if Britain failed to drop its digital services tax — a levy applied to large technology companies — warning that tariffs on British goods would be added on top of the existing 10% baseline. USTR had announced that the first official USMCA renegotiation round with Mexico would occur the week of May 25, 2026 in Mexico City. The administration’s tariff legal architecture remains in flux as Section 122 authority expires in less than 90 days. (Sources: AP News, Lawfare Media, Baker Botts Tariff Tracker, USTR)
April–May 2026 — Whiskey Tariff Removed for King Charles State Visit
April 30, 2026
Trump Removes All Whiskey Tariffs “In Honor of the King and Queen” After Royal State Visit
Following a state visit to the White House by King Charles III and Queen Camilla, President Trump announced on April 30 that the United States would remove all tariffs and restrictions on whiskey imports from the United Kingdom. Trump posted on Truth Social: “In Honor of the King and Queen of the United Kingdom, who have just left the White House, soon headed back to their wonderful Country, I will be removing the Tariffs and Restrictions on Whiskey.” Trump attributed the removal to Scotland’s working relationship with the Commonwealth of Kentucky on the trade of whiskey and bourbon, calling them “two very important industries.” The UK government confirmed the changes applied to all whisky tariffs, including those on Irish whiskey. The decision illustrates the personalized nature of the administration’s tariff policy: tariffs that affect billions of dollars in trade and were publicly framed as permanent structural corrections were lifted in a social media post hours after a diplomatic event. The state visit preceded the tariff change announcement by hours. The tariff removal is documented here as a factual event. Trump's Folly does not evaluate whether it is correct policy. (Sources: BBC, The Guardian, CNBC, Politico, Reuters)
May 2026 — EU Auto Tariff Escalation to 25%
May 1, 2026
Trump Raises EU Auto Tariff to 25%, Up from 15%, Accusing Bloc of Violating Trade Deal
President Trump announced on May 1 that he would increase tariffs on automobiles and trucks imported from the European Union to 25%, up from the 15% rate set under a July 2025 US-EU trade agreement. Trump announced the increase via Truth Social, accusing the EU of failing to comply with the terms of the deal. Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, and Al Jazeera all confirmed the announcement. The escalation marks a reversal of the 2025 trade agreement's automotive provisions and came as the EU was already under a 10% universal baseline tariff and steel and aluminum duties. The Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump had struck down the prior IEEPA-based EU tariffs, and the Boston Globe noted that a 2026 Supreme Court ruling had cast the 2025 deal's legal basis into doubt, prodding Trump toward using remaining statutory authority to reimpose duties. Euronews described the move as potentially "further jolting a global economy already rattled by the Iran war." The EU had not publicly announced retaliatory measures as of May 2. The tariff increase is set to take effect the week of May 4, 2026. (Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Al Jazeera, Euronews, AP News)
May 2026 — Spirit Airlines Ceases Operations; Trump Bailout Fails
May 2, 2026
Spirit Airlines Shuts Down — 17,000 Jobs Lost After Trump Administration Bailout Collapses
Spirit Airlines, the ultra-low-cost carrier that had filed for bankruptcy twice since 2024, announced on May 2 that it was beginning an orderly wind-down of all operations “effective immediately,” after a last-minute Trump administration bailout plan of up to $500 million was rejected by the airline’s bondholders. “It is with great disappointment that on May 2, 2026, Spirit Airlines started an orderly wind-down of our operations, effective immediately,” the airline said in a statement. The closure leaves approximately 17,000 Spirit employees out of work and millions of passengers holding now-void tickets. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced a series of measures to help affected passengers. The Trump administration had been in rescue talks with Spirit and proposed a bailout of up to $500 million; Spirit’s bondholders rejected the 11th-hour proposal. Spirit’s financial struggles were compounded by elevated fuel costs driven in part by the Iran war’s disruption of global oil supplies, though the airline’s problems predated the current conflict. The failure of a federal bailout — actively negotiated by the Trump administration and then rejected by creditors — is documented here as a factual event in the administration’s economic record. (Sources: NPR, BBC, CNBC, The Guardian, Washington Post, CNN)
May 2026 — EU Internal Trade Deal Approval Stalled; Next Trilogue May 19
May 6–7, 2026
EU Parliament Negotiator: “Still Some Way to Go” on Ratifying US-EU Trade Deal Under Threat of 25% Auto Tariffs; Next Round May 19
The European Parliament’s chief negotiator, Bernd Lange, said on May 7 that EU lawmakers and member state governments had made “good progress” in a second internal trilogue on the legislation needed to ratify the July 2025 US-EU trade accord — but that “there is still some way to go.” The next trilogue is scheduled for May 19. The urgency stems from President Trump’s May 1 announcement that he would increase tariffs on EU automobiles and trucks from 15% to 25% — accusing the bloc of failing to comply with terms of the Turnberry deal — with the increase taking effect the week of May 4. EU member states pushing for swift implementation of the legislation — which would remove import duties on US industrial goods and grant preferential access to US farm and sea produce — face internal disputes over safeguard mechanisms that lawmakers are demanding be included. Trump’s 25% auto tariff, now in effect, adds to the 10% universal baseline tariff still running under Section 122 authority, which itself expires July 24, 2026. The EU’s ability to implement trade deal legislation before that deadline is now a live diplomatic and economic question. (Sources: Reuters, European Parliament statement)
May 2026 — Court of International Trade Strikes Down 10% Global Tariff
May 7, 2026
Court of International Trade Rules 2–1: Section 122 10% Global Tariff Is Illegal — Second Consecutive Judicial Invalidation of Trump’s Tariff Authority
A split three-judge panel of the US Court of International Trade in New York ruled 2–1 on May 7, 2026 that the 10% global tariff President Trump imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is illegal — invalidating his last major remaining broad tariff authority. The majority found the tariffs “invalid” and “unauthorized by law,” concluding that Trump had overstepped the tariff power Congress granted under the statute. Section 122 was the administration’s emergency replacement after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026 (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump); the replacement tariffs were set to expire July 24, 2026. The ruling directly blocked tariff collection from the three named plaintiffs — the state of Washington and two small businesses, spice company Burlap & Barrel and toy company Basic Fun!, represented by the Liberty Justice Center — but it was not immediately clear whether it would halt collection for all other importers. The Trump administration was expected to appeal to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, and potentially then the Supreme Court. If upheld, the ruling would leave the administration with no remaining broad statutory authority for universal import tariffs. Specific-sector tariffs under Section 232 (national security) and Section 301 (unfair trade practices) are on separate legal footings and were not affected by this ruling. The ruling is the second consecutive judicial invalidation of the administration’s primary tariff framework: first the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, and now the Court of International Trade has struck down their Section 122 replacement. (Sources: AP News, New York Times, Politico, USA Today, Washington Post)
May 2026 — Trump Sets July 4 EU Ultimatum; Threatens “Much Higher” Tariffs
May 8, 2026
Trump Gives EU Until July 4 to Ratify Trade Deal or Face “Much Higher” Tariffs; Von der Leyen Confirms “Good Progress”; Next Trilogue Moved to May 10
President Trump announced on May 8 via Truth Social that he was giving the European Union until July 4 — the 250th anniversary of American independence — to ratify its side of the July 2025 Turnberry trade agreement, threatening to raise tariffs to “much higher” levels if the 27-nation bloc failed to do so. “I agreed to give her until our Country’s 250th Birthday or, unfortunately, their Tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levels,” Trump posted, referring to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Trump said he had agreed to the deadline on a “great call” with von der Leyen, during which both leaders also agreed that Iran could never possess a nuclear weapon. Von der Leyen said the EU remained “fully committed” to implementation of the deal and that “good progress is being made towards tariff reduction by early July.” The July 4 deadline supersedes Trump’s May 1 threat to raise EU auto tariffs to 25% and appears to back away from that specific escalation — though the administration did not explicitly rescind the auto tariff increase. The European Parliament’s chief trade negotiator Bernd Lange said the next trilogue round was moved to May 10 — a day earlier than originally scheduled. The EU must pass implementing legislation that would drop its levies on US industrial goods to zero and grant preferential access to US farm and sea products; internal EU disputes over safeguard mechanisms have slowed ratification. The July 4 ultimatum means the EU has approximately seven weeks to complete its internal legislative process or face a new unspecified tariff escalation. The Court of International Trade’s May 7 ruling that the Section 122 10% tariff is illegal does not affect the Trump administration’s ability to impose new tariffs under other authorities; however, it further narrows the legal tools available to the administration ahead of the Section 122 tariff’s July 24, 2026 expiration. (Sources: CNBC, Reuters, European Parliament statement)
May 2026 — Trump–Xi Beijing Summit: Trade Truce Extension, Boeing & Soybean Purchases Expected
May 12–13, 2026
Trump Arrives in Beijing for Xi Summit — Trade Truce Extension Expected; China May Commit to Boeing, Soybean, and Beef Purchases; US Tariffs on Chinese Goods at 47%; Board of Trade Floated
President Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 for a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping — the first US presidential visit to China since Trump’s own 2017 trip, and the first such visit by any US president in nearly a decade. On trade, the summit is primarily oriented toward stabilizing the existing US-China economic relationship rather than producing major new policy shifts, with only modest announcements expected. According to AP News, a trade truce reached in October 2025 is expected to be extended; China may announce plans to purchase American soybeans, beef, and Boeing commercial aircraft; and US officials have floated the creation of a bilateral “Board of Trade” to maintain ongoing economic dialogue. Current US tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 47%, down from 57% following a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea in 2025, when the two sides agreed to a partial de-escalation of the tariff war. Despite Trump’s public claim that “we’re doing a lot of business with China and making a lot of money,” US Census Bureau data showed China bought nearly $50 billion less in American products in 2025 than it did in 2022 — a decline attributed in part to Beijing stopping soybean purchases during the prior year’s trade war. The summit’s modest trade ambitions reflect the broader context: with the Iran war consuming diplomatic bandwidth and military resources, and with the administration’s tariff legal authority under judicial challenge, neither side has appetite for a renewed full-scale economic confrontation. Outstanding structural tensions persist: US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China, Chinese restrictions on rare earth mineral exports critical to US defense manufacturing, and intensifying competition in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles. The legal status of US tariff authority remains unsettled: the Court of International Trade struck down the Section 122 10% global tariff on May 7, and the Section 122 authority expires July 24, 2026, leaving the administration with narrowing legal tools for broad-based tariff policy. Section 232 (national security) and Section 301 (unfair trade practices) tariffs are on separate legal footings and were not affected by the May 7 ruling. No formal new tariff agreements were announced as of Trump’s arrival. (Sources: AP News, World Economic Forum, CNN, NBC News, Al Jazeera, France 24, LA Times)
May 2026 — Trump–Xi Summit Day One: “Constructive Strategic Stability” Framework, No New Tariff Announcements
May 14, 2026
Trump–Xi Beijing Summit Day One — “Constructive Strategic Stability” Framework Agreed; Pre-Summit Trade Meeting “Balanced and Positive”; Xi Pledges Wider Market Access; No New Tariff Deals Announced; Trump Invites Xi to White House September 24
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held more than two hours of formal talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026 — the first face-to-face meeting between the two leaders since October 2025 and the first US presidential visit to China in nine years. On trade, the pre-summit preparatory meeting held in South Korea — led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng — was described by Xi as producing “overall balanced and positive outcomes.” Xi said “China’s door to opening up will only open wider” and that Beijing welcomes deeper commercial engagement from US companies. The two sides agreed to pursue what Xi called a “constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability,” with Beijing framing this as a guiding framework for the next three years and beyond. Trump and Xi discussed expanding market access for US businesses in China, increasing Chinese investment in American industries, continued Chinese efforts to curb fentanyl flows into the United States, and additional Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods. Twelve US business leaders accompanied Trump’s delegation, including Elon Musk of Tesla and Jensen Huang of Nvidia. Trump invited Xi to visit the White House on September 24. No formal new tariff agreements, rate changes, or specific purchase commitments were publicly announced on Day One; Day Two of the summit is scheduled for May 15. The existing US tariffs on Chinese goods stand at 47% following a partial de-escalation in 2025. The trade truce reached in October 2025 was expected to be extended, and China was expected to announce purchases of American soybeans, beef, and Boeing aircraft; no such announcements were confirmed on May 14. The summit’s modest trade ambitions reflect the broader context: the Iran war consumes diplomatic bandwidth, the administration’s tariff legal authority faces judicial challenge (the Court of International Trade struck down the Section 122 10% tariff on May 7), and Section 122 authority expires July 24, 2026. Neither side has appetite for a renewed full-scale economic confrontation ahead of those deadlines. (Sources: CNBC, RFE/RL, AP News, White House official summary, Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, ABC News, France 24)
May 2026 — Trump–Xi Beijing Summit Day Two: No New Tariff Deals; Trade Truce Extended
May 15, 2026
Trump Claims “Fantastic Trade Deals” After Xi Summit — No Specific Tariff Agreements Announced; Existing 47% US Tariff Rate on Chinese Goods Unchanged; Trade Truce Extended
President Trump concluded his two-day Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 15, departing for Washington after a final meeting at Zhongnanhai. Trump told reporters he had made “fantastic trade deals” with China and that “a lot of good has come of it,” but the administration did not publicly announce any specific new tariff agreements, rate changes, or formal purchase commitments. Reuters reported Trump left with “no major breakthroughs on trade.” The New York Times said the leaders “played up stability without resolving major tensions.” The existing October 2025 US-China trade truce was confirmed as extended; China was expected to announce purchases of American soybeans, beef, and Boeing aircraft. Trump and his advisers subsequently confirmed that China agreed to purchase 200 Boeing commercial jets — Trump said the number could rise to 750 — along with more than $10 billion in American agricultural products and additional energy and medical device purchases, according to the New York Times and Reuters. Boeing stock fell approximately 4% when Trump announced the 200-jet figure, significantly fewer than the roughly 500 jets Reuters sources had indicated were under discussion prior to the summit. No specific tariff rate changes were announced. The bilateral “Board of Trade” proposed in the lead-up to the summit was discussed but not formally established. US tariffs on Chinese goods remain at approximately 47% following the partial de-escalation in October 2025. No changes to that rate were announced. The summit’s trade outcomes were described by analysts as stabilizing rather than transformative — an attempt to avoid renewed escalation rather than resolve underlying structural tensions over semiconductors, rare earths, and technology competition. The Court of International Trade’s May 7 ruling striking down the Section 122 10% tariff remains in force pending appeal; Section 122 authority expires July 24, 2026, leaving the administration’s broad tariff legal architecture in flux. (Sources: Reuters, AP News, New York Times, CNN, Channel News Asia)
May 2026 — China Preliminary Tariff Agreement Contradicts Trump’s “No Deals” Framing
May 16, 2026
China’s Commerce Ministry Says Both Sides Struck “Preliminary” Agreement to Reduce Some Tariffs and Expand Agricultural Trade — Contradicting Trump’s “No Deal” Framing at Summit Conclusion
One day after President Trump departed Beijing saying he had made “fantastic trade deals” but the administration announced no specific tariff agreements, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on May 16 saying the two countries had struck a preliminary agreement to reduce some tariffs and expand agricultural trade. The New York Times reported China’s ministry statement “seemingly contradicted statements by President Trump,” who had not acknowledged any tariff rate changes. China’s ministry said the US and China had “agreed to expand agricultural trade through tariff reductions and tackle non-tariff barriers and market access issues.” Reuters separately confirmed the ministry had described the summit deals — including tariffs, agricultural purchases, and Boeing aircraft orders — as “preliminary.” CBC News and CNBC reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described a deal under consideration that would reduce tariffs on roughly $30 billion in made-in-China imports that Bessent characterized as “low-end consumer goods” the US has no interest in manufacturing domestically. A bilateral “Board of Trade” mechanism was discussed to manage trade disputes between the two countries without reopening full tariff negotiations; it was not formally established at the summit. The current US tariff rate on Chinese goods remains approximately 47% following the partial de-escalation in October 2025. No specific tariff rate changes were formally announced or enacted as of May 17. China calling its own deals “preliminary” while Trump claimed “fantastic deals” with no specifics continues the pattern of the two governments issuing divergent accounts of the same negotiations. (Sources: New York Times, Reuters, CNBC, CBC News, AP News)
May 2026 — G7 Finance Ministers Meet in Paris; Bessent Calls for Iran Sanctions Regime
May 18, 2026
G7 Finance Ministers Convene in Paris to Address Iran War Economic Shock — Bessent Calls on Allies to Follow US Iran Sanctions Regime to Cut Off Iran’s “War Machine”
Finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 7 nations convened in Paris on May 18 to address the economic shock caused by the US-Iran war — including surging oil prices, bond market volatility, and global inflation concerns driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, attending the meeting, said he would call on G7 allies to follow a sanctions regime to keep financing away from what he described as Iran’s “war machine.” Reuters confirmed Bessent’s statement at the opening of the meeting. Al Arabiya reported the meeting was convened to find common ground on tackling economic tensions, global imbalances, and the bond market selloff triggered by inflation fears from the Iran war. The New York Times noted that “after more than a year of imposing tariffs on its Western allies and threatening more, the Trump administration now needs the assistance of its fellow members of the Group of 7 nations to stabilize an economic crisis of its own making.” G7 members include the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada — several of which declined to support or participate in the Iran military campaign and some of which have been the target of Trump administration tariffs. The meeting reflects a notable shift: the same nations subject to US tariff threats are now being asked to coordinate economic pressure on Iran. Whether G7 allies — who have expressed reservations about the war — will align with the US sanctions push is unclear. (Sources: Reuters, New York Times, CNBC, Al Arabiya)
May 2026 — White House Formalizes China Agricultural Purchase Commitment: $17 Billion Per Year Through 2028
May 17, 2026
White House Releases Fact Sheet: China to Purchase at Least $17 Billion in US Agricultural Products Per Year Through 2028 — In Addition to Prior Soybean Commitments
Two days after President Trump returned from the Beijing summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, the White House released an official fact sheet on May 17, 2026 confirming that China has committed to purchasing at least $17 billion of US agricultural products per year in 2026 (prorated for the remainder of the year), 2027, and 2028. The commitment covers beef and poultry — agricultural categories China had largely blocked from US imports — and is separate from the 25-million-metric-ton annual soybean purchase commitment China made in October 2025. The White House described the deals as “historic.” Reuters and AP News confirmed the White House fact sheet. China’s Commerce Ministry, in a separate readout, said both countries had agreed to “expand agricultural trade through tariff reductions” and reduce tariffs on products of mutual concern at equivalent scale. However, China’s ministry did not specify the $17 billion figure, and described the overall summit outcomes as “preliminary” — continuing the pattern of the two governments offering divergent characterizations of the same negotiations. Analysts cited by CBS News and Politico described the outcomes as modest, noting no breakthrough structural trade deals had been reached. The prior summit session sections on this page document that US tariffs on Chinese goods remain at approximately 47%, the Court of International Trade’s May 7 ruling striking down the Section 122 10% global tariff is under appeal, and Section 122 authority expires July 24, 2026. (Sources: Reuters, AP News, White House fact sheet, CNBC, Politico, China Commerce Ministry readout)
May 2026 — EU Strikes Provisional Agreement to Implement US Trade Deal; July 4 Deadline Now Achievable
May 20, 2026
EU Parliament and Council Strike Provisional Agreement to Remove Import Duties on US Goods — Includes Reinforced Suspension Clause and 2029 Sunset — Keeps July 4 Trump Deadline Within Reach
The European Parliament and the Council of the EU — the body representing EU member state governments — struck a provisional legislative agreement on Wednesday May 20 to implement the duty-removal provisions of the July 2025 US-EU Turnberry trade deal. Under the framework agreed at Trump’s Scottish golf resort last July, the EU committed to removing import duties on US industrial goods and granting preferential access to US farm and sea produce; in return the United States imposes tariffs of 15% on most EU goods exported to America. The legislation needed to implement the EU side of the deal had been stalled for nearly ten months due to internal disputes; the May 20 agreement resolves those disputes. The deal includes two significant modifications to the original framework: reinforced provisions to allow the EU to suspend its concessions if Trump reneges on the agreement, and a sunset clause terminating the deal at the end of 2029 unless renewed by fresh legislation. The agreement came after five hours of negotiations and should — following formal ratification steps — bring the EU’s duty cuts into force by the end of June, ahead of Trump’s July 4, 2026 deadline. Trump had threatened “much higher” tariffs if the EU failed to implement the deal by July 4. The May 20 agreement paves the way to avert that escalation. The deal covers the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship, with approximately $2 trillion in annual goods and services exchanged between the United States and European Union. The Section 122 10% global tariff — struck down by the Court of International Trade on May 7 and pending appeal — remains in legal limbo, but the EU-US arrangement operates on a separate bilateral track. (Sources: Reuters, Euractiv, DW, AP News)
Index Note: This index is updated as new announcements are made and market data becomes available. Trump's Folly does not project future tariff levels. Trump's Folly documents what has been announced, enacted, and measured. Given the pace of announcements during this period, updates may lag by days rather than hours. We document methodically, not in real time.