Economic Policy · Ongoing Documentation
The Tariff Index
This index documents tariff announcements made by the current administration, the stated rationale at the time of announcement, trading partner responses, and known market and economic impacts. It is updated as events warrant.
Events have been warranting frequently.
Trump's Folly does not evaluate whether these tariffs are correct policy. Trump's Folly documents what the tariffs are, what was said about them, and what happened as a result.
| Date | Target | Rate | Stated Rationale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2025 | Canada, Mexico | 25% | Border security; fentanyl trafficking | ● Ongoing |
| Feb 1, 2025 | China | 10% additional | Fentanyl precursor chemicals | ● Ongoing |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Canada, Mexico | 25% (enacted) | Trade deficit, border security | ● Ongoing |
| Mar 4, 2025 | China (cumulative) | 20% | Trade imbalance, fentanyl | ● Ongoing |
| Mar 12, 2025 | All countries (steel/aluminum) | 25% | National security; domestic industry protection | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | All countries (baseline) | 10% | "Liberation Day" — reciprocal trade correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | China (total) | 54% | Reciprocal; trade imbalance correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | European Union | 20% | Reciprocal; trade deficit correction | ● Ongoing |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Vietnam | 46% | Reciprocal; trade deficit correction | ● Ongoing |
Market Response
The following market impacts have been documented in connection with the tariff announcements above. Trump's Folly records them as factual data points. Trump's Folly does not attribute causation beyond what is documentable.
S&P 500 · Apr 3–4, 2025
−10.5%
Two-day decline following Liberation Day announcement. Largest two-day drop since March 2020.
Dow Jones · Apr 3–4, 2025
−3,500 pts
Approximate point decline over the two trading days following the announcement.
Retaliatory Tariffs Announced
4+
Trading partners announcing retaliatory measures: China (34%), EU, Canada, others.
Full Economic Impact
TBD
Long-term GDP, inflation, and employment impact not yet determinable. Being documented.
Retaliatory Measures
34% retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Restrictions on rare earth exports under review.
Countermeasures on US goods announced. Specific rates being determined.
25% tariffs on selected US goods in response to steel and aluminum tariffs.
Index Note: This index is updated as new announcements are made and market data becomes available. Trump's Folly does not project future tariff levels. Trump's Folly documents what has been announced, enacted, and measured. Given the pace of announcements during this period, updates may lag by days rather than hours. We document methodically, not in real time.